The 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge tees off on Thursday at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas and Scottie Scheffler will try to get back to his dominant ways and put a crazy week at the PGA Championship behind him. Despite all the week’s drama, Scheffler still finished T-8 at the PGA Championship, though that was his worst result since February as Scheffler had placed in the top two in each of his previous five tournaments.
Scheffler is the clear favorite at 3-1 to win the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge, followed by Collin Morikawa (14-1), Jordan Spieth (18-1) and Max Homa (22-1) in the latest 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge odds. Is Scheffler worth including in 2024 Charles Schwab bets at those odds after last weekend’s events, or are you better off finding value from a longshot? Before locking in your 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure’s model correctly predicted Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned nearly $1,000. And at the 2024 PGA Championship, the model correctly called Xander Schauffele’s first major victory heading into the weekend.
The model also predicted Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm’s second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.
In addition, McClure’s best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) winning the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 12 majors entering the weekend, including the last three Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the Charles Schwab Challenge 2024 field is finalized, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Charles Schwab Challenge 2024: Morikawa, a two-time major champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles and barely cracks the top five. Morikawa is coming off a strong showing at the PGA Championship where he secured a T-4 finish at Valhalla. He’s now finished inside the top 10 in three of his last four individual starts on the PGA Tour, which includes a T-3 showing at the Masters in April.
However, Morikawa has won just once since claiming his second major title at the Open Championship in 2021 and he’s struggled at Colonial Country Club in recent years, finishing T-29 or worse in each of his last two starts. Morikawa enters the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge ranked 103rd in strokes gained: approach to green (-0.040) and 131st in greens in regulation percentage (64.13%). Colonial puts a premium on accurate iron shots, which doesn’t bode well for Morikawa’s chances to finish on top of the leaderboard. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: Denny McCarthy, a 50-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. McCarthy missed the cut with a 4 over at last weekend’s PGA Championship, but his back-to-back rounds of 73 still had some solid moments.
The week before, McCarthy finished T-6 at the Wells Fargo Championship. In early April, McCarthy found himself in a playoff with Akshay Bhatia before finishing second at the Valero Texas Open. McCarthy is 17th in total strokes gained, including third in strokes gained: putting. He ranks first in putts per round, third in one-putt percentage and sixth in putting average on the PGA Tour this season so that putter can be a separator for himself and the rest of the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge field. At 50-1 odds, McCarthy could provide a huge return in 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge bets. See who else to back here.
How to make 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge picks
The model is also targeting four other golfers with odds of 35-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks here.
Who will win the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the Charles Schwab Challenge 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected Charles Schwab Challenge leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 12 golf majors, including the last three Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship.
2024 Charles Schwab Challenge odds, field
Scottie Scheffler +300
Collin Morikawa +1400
Jordan Spieth +1800
Max Homa +2200
Tony Finau +3300
Sungjae Im +3500
Si Woo Kim +3500
Min Woo Lee +3500
Adam Scott +4000
Sepp Straka +4500
Brian Harman +4500
Keith Mitchell +4500
Denny McCarthy +5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5000
Tom Hoge +5000
Chris Kirk +5500
Harris English +5500
Tom Kim +5500
Justin Rose +5500
Billy Horschel +6000
Aaron Rai +6500
Thomas Detry +6500
Akshay Bhatia +6500
Maverick McNealy +6500
Taylor Moore +7000
Daniel Berger +7000
Keegan Bradley +7000
Davis Thompson +7500
J.T. Poston +7500
Lucas Glover +8000
Austin Eckroat +8000
Rickie Fowler +8000
Nicolai Højgaard +8000
Ben Griffin +8000
Beau Hossler +8000
Adam Schenk +8000
Ryan Fox +9000
Kevin Yu +9000
Cam Davis +9000
Patrick Rodgers +9000
Andrew Putnam +10000
Mark Hubbard +11000
Brendon Todd +11000
Lee Hodges +11000
Eric Cole +11000
Chris Gotterup +12000
Luke List +12000
Greyson Sigg +12000
Chesson Hadley +12000
Sam Stevens +12000
Doug Ghim +12000
Webb Simpson +12000
Emiliano Grillo +12000
Ryo Hisatsune +12000
Robert MacIntyre +12000
Victor Perez +15000
Alex Smalley +15000
S.H. Kim +15000
Gary Woodland +15000
Nate Lashley +15000
