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Home COLLEGE SPORTS

4-Point Play: Pros and cons of Chaz Lanier and Jaxson Robinson

by 9inenews
May 21, 2024
in COLLEGE SPORTS
0

Mark Pope is in a comfortable, yet tricky position as he looks to close out his debut roster in Lexington. On one hand, Kentucky has built out a dynamite core group that is loaded with talented system fits from top to bottom, 11 players who bring something unique to the table while positively impacting winning. You’ve got shooters, facilitators, defenders, size, athleticism and experience, a unit capable of competing in the SEC as currently constructed — it’s already deeper and more talented than the BYU roster that finished fifth in the Big 12 last season, a conference that tied the SEC for first nationally in NCAA Tournament bids with eight.

The Wildcats are still one key piece away, though, from really making a statement in Pope’s first season at Kentucky. No, this system isn’t star-driven like John Calipari’s was in Lexington, relying on iso-heavy players taking over games in crunch time simply hoping the cream rises to the top. It does, though, create open looks at all three levels better than just about anybody in the country with a goal of taking 35 3-pointers per game. And ideally, you have as many shot-makers on the floor as you can fit, preferably at all five positions.

Four signings range from non-threats to low-volume career shooters with streaky efficiency in Lamont Butler Jr., Amari Williams, Otega Oweh and Brandon Garrison — all brilliant additions with unique defensive skillsets and physical traits, but hardly snipers. Pope countered those limitations by loading up on shooting specialists in Koby Brea, Kerr Kriisa, Andrew Carr and Ansley Almonor with Collin Chandler, Trent Noah and Travis Perry all dead-eye threats among incoming freshmen.

What’s missing? The three-level scoring threat capable of knocking down shots at an elite rate, but also attacking the basket and finishing around the rim, finding the tiny windows to put points on the board at any given moment. Pope’s system is the ultimate cushion and will do most of the heavy lifting, but it’s a luxury having someone you can lean on to counter even the best defensive threats with better offense. That’s where Chaz Lanier and Jaxson Robinson enter the picture, arguably the two best all-around scoring threats left in the portal with serious Kentucky interest. The former just wrapped up a visit to Lexington while the latter was Pope’s star at BYU a season ago, currently testing the draft waters with his eyes on the Wildcats should he pull his name out.

Who are you hoping Kentucky lands? There isn’t a wrong answer, and the Cats will be in tremendous shape with either. A few pros and cons for both options, though, can help you decide your favorite portal target as Pope closes out the roster.

Jaxson Robinson

Pros: Size and system continuity

Standing 6-7, 190 pounds, Robinson is a long and athletic wing with NBA range as a shot-maker, hitting 16 threes from 25-plus feet while grading out in the 77th percentile in catch-and-shoot threes with a 56 effective field goal percentage, 83rd percentile in spot-up attempts at 1.14 points per possession and 87th percentile in off-ball screen attempts at 1.3 points per possession.

He’s also got three years of high-major basketball under his belt, two in the SEC (2020-21 at Texas A&M, 2021-22 at Arkansas) and one in the Big 12 (2023-24 at BYU), earning conference Sixth Man of the Year honors this past season in his breakthrough campaign averaging a career-high 14.2 points per contest. And maybe most importantly, he’s got two years of experience playing for Pope, more familiar with the system than anyone else on the roster.

As the rest of the team shot 14-42 for 33.3% from the field in BYU’s opening-round loss to Duquesne in the NCAA Tournament, Robinson led all scorers with 25 points on 8-15 shooting, 5-11 from three and 4-4 at the line — the Cougars’ only shot to survive before ultimately coming up short.

Cons: One-trick pony

Robinson emerged as a terrific scorer in the Big 12 to catapult himself into draft status, firmly solidifying a second-round grade with an invite to the Draft Combine. Considering his length with a 6-11.75 wingspan and standing reach of 8-7, along with his 34-inch max vertical, he’s left a bit to be desired beyond what his tools indicate he could bring to the table, though. The wing out of Ada, Oklahoma pulled down just 2.5 rebounds and dished out just 1.3 assists while adding 0.7 steals and 0.4 blocks in 26.5 minutes per contest in his breakthrough campaign this past season, most of his production coming as a score-first threat. He also graded out as an average defender at 103.9 points allowed per 100 possessions — enough to get the job done, but there is more in the tank to unlock given his NBA-ready frame, quickness and athleticism.

Considering those things, efficiency is a touch underwhelming, as well, shooting 42.6% from the field and 35.4% from three for a true shooting percentage of 56.3% and an effective field goal rate of 53.1% — all career-highs.

You’re being nitpicky when comparing two elite scoring threats, but Lanier has the firm shooting edge when zeroing in on hit rate.

Chaz Lanier

Pros: Otherworldly efficiency on high volume

Lanier was about as good as it gets as a shooter this past season at North Florida, knocking down 44.0% of his threes on 7.5 attempts per contest, ranked No. 5 nationally in efficiency and No. 8 in total makes per contest. Taking a closer look, he graded out in the 96th percentile in catch-and-shoot threes with a 67 effective field goal percentage and in the 90th percentile as a spot-up shooter at 1.23 points per possession.

Elsewhere, he also scored 1.26 points per possession on dribble handoffs (90th percentile) to go with 1.27 points per possession in isolation (93rd percentile), showing he can go get you a bucket beyond simple catch-and-shoot looks — he’s elite in both areas. And he expanded his game as a passer and playmaker with career-bests in turnover and assist rate while grading out in the 84th percentile in pick-and-roll possessions that included passes.

With his usage up 13 percentage points to 24.3% this past season compared to his first two, there aren’t many holes to poke in his offensive game. Lanier produced at an astronomical level with the efficiency to match as a do-it-all scoring threat, ranked No. 1 nationally ahead of Antonio Reeves in overall points per possession at 1.20 in 16.3 possessions per game.

Don’t discount his 4.8 rebounds per contest, either, racking up 16 games of five-plus boards and five with at least eight. That’s a major plus for the North Florida standout.

Cons: Defensive concerns in a bad conference

Lanier measured in at 6-3.75 without shoes with a 6-9 wingspan and weighed in at 196 pounds with a 36-inch max vertical — all positives. On the flip side, though, he combined for just 10 points on 3-7 shooting in two games in front of NBA scouts hoping to see him prove he can produce playing alongside and against top-tier talent. The Nashville native didn’t perform poorly, but it wasn’t enough to earn the call-up to the Draft Combine in Chicago.

And that’s the top concern for Lanier coming from the ASUN, grading out as the seventh-worst conference in college basketball at No. 26 overall, according to last season’s RPI ratings. Though he averaged 14.6 points on 46.4% shooting and 42.1% from three in five games against Power Five competition, he also graded out as a poor defender on the year with a defensive rating of 110.7 to make it three seasons of 110-plus points allowed per 100 possessions. That came on a team ranked among the worst defensively in college basketball at No. 318 overall. He’s got the physical tools and Synergy credits him with just 56 makes allowed on 165 attempts overall — a solid stop rate — but again, it’s all in a pretty abysmal conference.

Will the elite scoring translate? And can he defend in the SEC? Lanier is undoubtedly the bigger gamble out of the two, especially considering he’s a bit of a one-hit-wonder, averaging no more than 4.7 points per game in his first three years of college basketball. It’s been a slow burn up to this point with a serious senior payoff, but high-major ball is a whole different animal in an 18-game conference schedule.

The final verdict: There is plenty more to love than hate with both players. One is among the most efficient scorers in the nation while the other is bigger and longer with a legitimate sample size of high-major production under Mark Pope.

Land either and the Wildcats are cooking with gas going into 2024-25.

4-Point Play: KSR’s final takeaways from EYBL Session III

I’ll be honest with you guys, Nike EYBL Session I in Memphis from April 26-28 was a struggle. Mark Pope was in the middle of forming his coaching staff and building a competitive roster with high school recruiting on the back burner. The Kentucky coaches had reached out to a few top-tier kids early to lay a surface-level foundation, but things just hadn’t progressed too far from there quite yet. That led to a weird situation in Memphis where you’re not exactly sure who to watch or interview, leading to a few awkward interactions with kids hoping and waiting to hear from the new Kentucky staff while others were blunt in saying they had no interest in the Wildcats without John Calipari.

We made the most of it, but admittedly didn’t learn as much as we had hoped to regarding the next era of high school recruiting in Lexington.

That shifted in Indianapolis at EYBL Session III, the very first live period of Pope’s time at Kentucky. The KSR crew got to follow the coaches around like lost puppies all weekend hoping to build a base group of talent to keep an eye on moving forward, Zack Geoghegan compiling that list of nearly 30 names earlier today.

How about some big-picture takeaways from the weekend, though? What was it like being with Pope and company for three days in a gym full of thousands of coaches?

A balanced evaluation effort

Let’s start with how the staff watched these players throughout the weekend, spreading far and wide across the country at three separate events to do so. Pope and Jason Hart got started in Indianapolis at EYBL while Cody Fueger was in Bryan (TX) at Adidas 3SSB and Alvin Brooks III was in Wichita (KS) at Puma’s PRO16/NXT in Wichita (KS). After day one, Brooks joined Pope and Hart at EYBL while Fueger hung back at 3SSB on Saturday, followed by a complete pivot of Pope and Hart flying to 3SSB while Fueger joined Brooks at EYBL on Sunday.

Taking a closer look at the individual games and players watched in Indianapolis, the coaches often spent one half split up on different courts, then swapped at halftime to cross-evaluate. And if they could position themselves to straddle two courts simultaneously or watch from the birds-eye platform above to see multiple games at a time, they would. There was note-taking on hard-copy coaches’ packets with Pope himself using a binder with analytics and charts, vigorous and calculated in their evaluations. It wasn’t just a networking weekend to catch up with old buddies like some coaches use the live period for, it was all business.

No one outworked the Kentucky coaching staff from Friday to Sunday.

Pope goes after the best of the best

It’s easy to say you’re going to continue recruiting at the highest level and bring in McDonald’s All-Americans on a regular basis when you take the Kentucky job — it’s what the fans want to hear. They liked the kids John Calipari brought in year after year, they just wanted better postseason results with that talent after coming up short recently. And there was a fear Lexington would turn into BYU East, recruiting at that level vs. this level with the resources and platform Kentucky basketball has to offer. This program allows you to swing for the fences, no matter the playing style or fit preferences.

And then Pope re-offered 2025 No. 1 overall recruit AJ Dybantsa to put those worries to bed.

There isn’t a better player in the gym than the 6-9 wing out of Massachusetts, no matter which one he walks into any given weekend. He’s longer, more athletic and more skilled than anyone else in high school basketball, truly a generational talent with All-NBA potential that leaves you drooling with every viewing. The way he glides across the floor and produces on both ends at the highest level every time out is second to none.

Pope and his assistants made sure to sit courtside at every game, just as they were for every top-tier prospect in the nation. KSR counted 15 top-20 players across all shoe circuits with a Kentucky coach in attendance — and that’s how it should be.

Recruiting beyond the rankings

Let’s not get it twisted, though: Kentucky did not go down the list of top recruits and use the rankings as a crutch when navigating the game schedule. You could safely assume under Coach Cal the Wildcats would hit the top 25 with the occasional viewing of a rising star — typically after the star had risen. That’s just how things worked under Calipari, that staff able to slide in late and pick off just about anybody they wanted, whenever they wanted. You can do that when you’re the greatest recruiter of all time with the biggest brand in college basketball, letting everyone else do the grunt work of talent evaluation while you choose your favorites when the time comes.

How that will continue in Fayetteville remains to be seen. As for how things are going in Lexington, Pope and his staff are hitting the best of the best while also showing off their early eye for talent by digging below the surface a bit. Take this one story, for example, a high-level scout asking me to relay the message about a rising standout in the making on the 3SSB circuit in Jamarion Bateman, a three-star currently ranked No. 161 overall and No. 10 among combo guards in the rising senior class. Before I even got the opportunity, a separate text came through from a set of eyes in Texas saying Mark Pope was courtside for Bateman’s game with Power 5 that afternoon.

Other examples included Shelton Henderson (No. 49 overall), Kayden Edwards (No. 87 overall), Acaden Lewis (No. 89 overall) and Kaden Magwood (No. 97 overall), guys outside the top 40 you’d have to know what you’re looking for to find. And you can even include that grouping of 26-40, as well, players who are more fit-specific with niches rather than pure top-end talent. Chris Cenac (No. 30 overall), Davion Hannah (No. 31 overall), Xavion Staton (No. 32 overall) and Kingston Flemings (No. 33 overall) fit in that category, all guys Kentucky watched closely.

The Wildcats are casting a wide net, which is the way to operate when you’re laying your foundation in the first month or two on the job. Gotta swing for the fences on the top talent, but also make sure you find your lesser-known system fits and potential diamonds in the rough.

Names of note for Kentucky moving forward

Kentucky was the clear dream school for Tounde Yessoufou growing up in Benin, coming to the United States in hopes of suiting up for the Wildcats one day — and Pope has made a strong early impression. Fortunately for the Wildcats, the top-25 prospect was clearly one of the best players in the gym in Indianapolis and is seen as a clear riser with five-star upside in the upcoming rankings.

Will Riley, the No. 9 overall prospect and No. 2 small forward in the On3 Player Rankings, is also someone Pope loves and will be watching closely going into the meat and potatoes of the summer. Dropping a session-high 42 points on Friday, he’s also considering a reclass to 2024 with Arizona, Alabama, Kentucky and Arkansas remaining as finalists.

Lexington’s own Jasper Johnson is also a top priority for Pope and company, the five-star guard solidifying himself as the next great in-state talent to come out of Kentucky but also one of the top shot-makers in high school basketball. The UK staff was in attendance for every one of his games throughout the weekend and will be pushing to keep him home when it comes time to make a decision. He’s currently averaging 17.9 points on 41.1% shooting, 30.8% from three and 89.6% at the line to go with 3.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists per contest through three sessions.

Those three, along with Dybantsa, are among Kentucky’s top targets in 2025 as high school recruiting season ramps up into the summer.

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