From time to time we update our Postseason Odds report, with focus on the Arizona Diamondbacks of course. The last time we updated this report on August 2nd the D-backs were rated as having approximately a 60% chance of making the Postseason.
Things have changed dramatically for the better.
Heading into play on Friday, the D-backs are tied with Padres atop the NL Wild Card standings and sit just 2.0 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West with 40 games left to play.
Postseason Odds
The Diamondbacks have gone 10-2 since we last ran this report, including their current six game winning streak. Remarkably, the D-backs current Win % translates to a 92 win season.
As a result they’ve gone from just over 60% to 95% chance to make the Postseason. Only the Padres have seen a comparable increase in their fortunes.
It should be noted that the Brewers have entered the near lock category along with the Dodgers and Phillies. The odds below are a composite average from Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and Baseball Reference.
There are still 40 games left to play for the Diamondbacks. They’ll need to keep winning. A long losing steak or subpar couple of weeks could see their odds drop dramatically. Just look at the Braves and Mets, for example.
Nothing is over until they’ve actually clinched a spot. They still have four games against the Dodgers, six games agains the Giants, seven against the Brewers, and the final three games of the season against San Diego at Chase Field.
With so many games against teams competing for a playoff spot, the final six weeks of the regular season shapes up to be a thrilling stretch run. And we’ll be here every step of the way to chronicle it for you.
