Blake Snell will become a free agency this winter after he opts out of the two-year, $62 million pact. Oddly enough, his chances of returning to the SF Giants might have improved this week after the Buster Posey hire.
Does the Buster Posey hire help the SF Giants chances of retaining a lefty ace?
I will preface this by saying that once a player reaches free agency, the chances of him returning to the incumbent team are about the same odds as a coin flip.
If the Giants retained Farhan Zaidi, my expectation of him returning to San Francisco was relatively low. We have seen in recent offseasons as Zaidi let both Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón walk in free agency. I was expecting a similar outcome for Snell.
This is not meant to be a criticism of Zaidi. Oftentimes, signing a pitcher who is in his 30’s to a multi-year deal can be the type of move that sets an organization back. The Giants saw that firsthand after not realizing too much benefit from signing both Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto before the 2016 season. Perhaps, that feeling is still lingering. It is generally not a good investment, but you have to make exceptions.
Despite getting off to a slow start, Snell was excellent in his lone season with San Francisco. The two-time Cy Young winner pitched to a 3.12 ERA in 20 starts. This included throwing his first no-hitter in a game against the Cincinnati Reds in August.
Snell was looking to land a payday in excess of $100 million last offseason but that offer never came to be. He looks poised to finally get that type of payday after another strong year under his belt.
And, the Giants might be the team that gives him that deal. Before Matt Chapman signed his six-year extension, Buster Posey assured him that the club plans to spend big according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Now, Posey is the one making the decisions for the Giants.
With Zaidi at the helm, the Giants wanted to build an organization from the ground up. However, Posey may have a top-down approach as he hopes to lead the Giants back to competitiveness as soon as he can. The only way they can realistically do that is through spending in free agency because the farm system is not strong enough to feed the major league roster.
While the Giants will target the top of the market and cast a wide net as they generally do, they already have a pitcher in Snell who liked pitching in San Francisco.
At the end of the day, the Giants are one of only a handful of teams who can even afford Snell. With Posey at the helm, there is a good chance that the Giants will be more aggressive in free agency and he even hinted at it. This could all bode well for a Snell reunion.
