The Chicago Bulls are hoping they hit a homerun when they traded Alex Caruso to the Thunder for Josh Giddey.
Regardless of what happens with Giddey, the Bulls should have gotten more, as they walked away from the deal with a flawed young player on an expiring contract and no draft picks attached.
This will eventually put the Bulls in a tough spot if Giddey doesn’t improve some of his weaknesses, as he’ll have all of the leverage to demand a huge deal in restricted free agency and Chicago will almost have to pay it rather than give up their best trade asset for nothing, a theme from past trades.
Giddey should at least put up better stats in a bigger role with no MVP candidate to share the ball with and a clear chance to be the starting point guard.
So, what is his floor for the future? What is his ceiling?
Josh Giddey’s floor: Michael Carter-Williams
Whenever there is a tall point guard who can’t shoot, the Michael Carter-Williams comparisons will start to come out, but people forget that like Giddey, MCW had a strong start to his career.
But injuries and his inability to shoot made him a liability, which is what could happen to Giddey if he doesn’t improve his jumper.
MCW also put up big counting stats in his first couple of seasons, but eventually teams figured him out. He wasn’t quite athletic enough to regularly beat people off the dribble, especially when they could just sag off and let him shoot.
We saw the same happen to Giddey last season in the playoffs, which limited his minutes and was ultimately what made OKC decide he was expendable.
Unfortunately, this scenario is a distinct possibility, as Giddey is likely to put up big numbers next season but if he does it while shooting around 40 percent again is he a guy you want to give a max deal?
The Bulls already took a huge gamble on Patrick Williams and Giddey will be in line for an even bigger contract, especially if he averages near a triple double, which is possible.
But if he does it inefficiently and is a guy you can’t play in the playoffs, the Bulls could end up investing heavily in a player with catastrophic flaws.
Josh Giddey’s ceiling: Jason Kidd
A big point guard who can do everything but shoot? Sounds a lot like Jason Kidd, who was one of the most effective point guards in league history even though he wasn’t a good shooter until the end of his career.
Kidd once finished second in the MVP voting while shooting under 40 percent from the floor, something I am not sure could happen in the modern game.
But Kidd did everything else so well it didn’t matter, as he was a walking triple double who led the league in assists five times and was a great rebounder for the position.
If you compare Giddey and Kidd’s first three seasons in the league, their stats are nearly identical with one big caveat: Defense.
Kidd averaged over two steals per game for most of his career and was an elite defender who made the All-Defensive team eight times.
Like Giddey, Kidd was not a jump-out-of-the-gym athlete but used his size and strength to get to his spots. He also had one of the highest basketball IQs in league history, which is why he is now a coach.
For Giddey to get away with not being a great shooter, he has to be like Kidd, which is be excellent at everything else, including defense, where Giddey is currently a liability.
He has a ton of work to do on that end to get anywhere near Kidd, and even if he does, it’s unclear whether a point guard who can’t shoot can really thrive in the modern NBA where shooting has become a priority.
Giddey will likely fall somewhere in the meaty middle ground between the two extremes, but he’s young enough to still have boom or bust potential.
He has played well in the Olympics so far, hopefully a preview of what we’ll see in Chicago in a bigger role.
